A roundup of nonpartisan polls for the Amendment 2 ballot initiative from September. (Photo: news-press.com )
Medical marijuana support falls in SW Florida, statewide
Sep 26, 2014
In somewhat of an eye-opener, support for medical marijuana has fallen below the critical 60 percent threshold, with Southwest Florida even less supportive, according to a new poll.
The SurveyUSA/WFLA tracking poll finds that 53 percent of likely voters support Amendment 2, 32 percent oppose and another 15 percent are undecided. To pass, the initiative needs to top the 60 percent mark.
In Southwest Florida, those numbers drop to 48 percent in favor, 38 percent against, with the remainder unsure.
It's a far cry from the halcyon days of summer when a Quinnipiac poll found nearly 90 percent support for the measure.
The SurveyUSA poll marks the worst showing to date for the initiative and only more data will tell us whether this is an outlier or a trend. Other polls in September show the measure hovering just above or below the critical 60 percent mark.
Despite this bad bit of polling news for backers, The News-Press forecast model puts the probability of Amendment 2 passing at 63.9 percent. Our model, based on all available data, predicts a 61.2 percent to 38.8 percent outcome.
The SurveyUSA poll of 588 likely voters was taken Sept. 19-22 and has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percent.